This Agile success story is drawn from Adam Parker’s experience report, “No Estimates at Scale in the US Federal Government.”
The stakes were high. The team was tasked with modernizing the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s E-Verify system, which verifies employment eligibility for millions of workers. Success meant an improved, streamlined process; failure would mean delays, frustrated stakeholders, and wasted taxpayer money.
Using Scrum, the team relied on sprint planning and story points, but as integration challenges grew and new requirements emerged, their system began to break down. The traditional process became too rigid, and they needed a solution—fast.
The shift to “NoEstimates”
At a critical phase in the project, the team decided to make a bold choice: they abandoned story points and shifted from Scrum to Kanban. Instead of estimating work, they focused on two key metrics: cycle time and throughput. The goal was simple—keep the work flowing.
After a one-day workshop, the team implemented a Kanban board to track how tasks moved through the system, adapting to real-time demands.
Why NoEstimates worked
Three factors made this shift successful:
- Stable team composition: The team’s long history of working together built trust and collaboration, allowing them to drop estimates without chaos.
- Culture of experimentation: Agile values like learning and adaptation had always been part of their culture, making this another natural experiment.
- Deep knowledge: They had a thorough understanding of their project’s technical and business needs, allowing them to make quick decisions without estimates.
Challenges and solutions
At first, stakeholders were skeptical about how the team would track progress without story points. The team addressed this by focusing on average throughput over two-week cycles. Internally, some members missed sprint planning’s structure, so they used regular reviews and retrospectives to maintain alignment and adjust as needed.
Returning to Scrum, keeping the lessons
After several months, the team returned to Scrum but kept what they learned from Kanban. They visualized their work and focused on flow, realizing that estimates are just tools—not the goal. Whether in Kanban or Scrum, they stayed focused on delivering value by keeping work moving efficiently.
Key takeaways
- Flexibility is key: Processes must adapt to project demands.
- Focus on flow: Moving work efficiently matters more than predicting it.
- Trust your team: Trust is crucial when abandoning traditional metrics.
- Experiment and learn: Continuous improvement drives Agile success.
Adam Parker’s report shows how an Agile team can thrive by challenging traditional processes and focusing on what truly matters—delivering value.
The moment it clicked
What makes this story compelling isn’t just the shift in methodology. It’s the deeper realization that success doesn’t come from process—it comes from people. The team’s decision to embrace NoEstimates wasn’t about shortcuts; it was about cutting away rituals that no longer served them.
Agile means growth
After eight months in Kanban, the team returned to Scrum, but they weren’t the same. Freed from the rigid constraints of estimates, they had learned how to manage their flow effectively. Agile wasn’t just a set of rules; it was a mindset of constant growth and adaptation.
They learned that what matters most is moving work forward, not rigid adherence to a process. The lessons from NoEstimates gave them a flexible, adaptable approach that let them thrive, even under pressure.
The heart of Agility
Adam Parker’s report reveals something deeper than technical decisions. Agility is about creating a space where teams can adapt, trust each other, and focus on the bigger picture. The true success of this team didn’t come from Kanban or NoEstimates—it came from their willingness to experiment and grow.
The project was important, but the real win was in how the team evolved. And that’s the essence of Agile.
Read Adam’s full report here: No Estimates at Scale in the US Federal Government.
